Wargames can be understood not only as analytical or training tools, but also as a methodological approach to studying international relations, international security policy, and strategic decision-making processes in these contexts. They make interaction, uncertainty, and decision-making logics visible in controlled environments, thereby opening up new perspectives for research.
This is an abridged and German-translated version of an article by Philip Jan Schäfer and Joseph Verbovszky, forthcoming in the Journal of Foreign and Security Policy.
In an increasingly complex and uncertainty-driven security environment, methods that make strategic decision-making behavior examinable under realistic conditions are gaining importance. Wargames provide a distinct approach for this purpose. They make it possible to analyze interaction, uncertainty, and decision-making processes in controlled yet dynamic contexts, thereby generating insights into strategic action that are difficult to access using classical empirical methods.
Wargames can be understood as rule-based, interactive simulations in which human actors make decisions based on limited information and respond to the actions of others. In contrast to purely model-based simulations, the focus is not on abstract system logic, but on the behavior of real or realistically acting decision-makers. This creates a methodological space between experiment and simulation that allows for both controlled variation and complex social dynamics (Perla & McGrady, 2011; Lin-Greenberg et al., 2022).
It is precisely this combination that makes wargames relevant for research in international relations. They make it possible to examine questions that are difficult to observe empirically, such as escalation dynamics, strategic interaction under uncertainty, or the decision-making processes of political and military elites. Wargames do not produce predictions in the strict sense; rather, they open up structured spaces of possibility in which alternative scenarios can be explored and decision-making logics made visible (Rubel, 2006).
Their value for knowledge thus lies less in the production of generalizable laws than in the analysis of patterns, mechanisms, and interactions. In the game, decisions alter the initial conditions and generate new constraints, risks, and options. In this way, dynamic processes emerge that make real strategic constellations comprehensible without incurring their real-world costs or consequences. Wargames thus generate a form of knowledge that is processual, context-dependent, and closely tied to specific decision-making logics.
At the same time, the results of wargames are not independent of their design. Scenarios, role assignments, moderation, and adjudication mechanisms significantly influence which dynamics emerge and what insights can be gained (Banks, 2024; Bartels, 2020). Wargames are therefore not neutral instruments, but deliberately designed spaces of inquiry whose validity requires transparent methodological reflection.
Under certain conditions, wargames can take on an experimental character. When research questions are clearly defined, variables are deliberately varied, and gameplay is systematically documented, differences in actors’ behavior can be analyzed in a traceable manner. Nevertheless, control always remains limited. Wargames operate within a tension between internal validity, external generalizability, and the realistic representation of complex social processes, without being able to fully satisfy all of these dimensions simultaneously (Booth & Reddie, 2024).
Unter bestimmten Bedingungen können Wargames experimentellen Charakter annehmen. Wenn Forschungsfragen klar definiert, Variablen gezielt variiert und Spielverläufe systematisch dokumentiert werden, lassen sich Unterschiede im Verhalten von Akteuren nachvollziehbar analysieren. Dennoch bleibt die Kontrolle stets begrenzt. Wargames bewegen sich in einem Spannungsfeld zwischen interner Validität, externer Generalisierbarkeit und realitätsnaher Abbildung komplexer sozialer Prozesse, ohne diese Dimensionen gleichzeitig vollständig erfüllen zu können (Booth & Reddie, 2024).
Wargames are therefore neither mere simulations nor classical experiments, but an independent research method. Their contribution lies in the structured exploration of complex decision spaces and in making visible relationships that can only be inadequately captured through other methodological approaches. In a security environment increasingly shaped by uncertainty, dynamism, and interdependence, they provide an important building block for the further development of strategic analysis.
Literature
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Bartels, E. M. (2020). Getting the most out of wargaming. Connections.
Booth, K., & Reddie, A. (2024). Analytical wargaming and design trade-offs. Journal of Strategic Studies.
Hyde, S. D. (2015). Experiments in international relations. Annual Review of Political Science, 18, 403–424.
Lin-Greenberg, E., Pauly, R., & Schneider, J. (2022). Wargaming for international relations research. European Journal of International Relations, 28(1), 82–109.
Perla, P., & McGrady, E. (2011). Why wargaming works. Naval War College Review, 64(3), 111–130.
Rubel, R. (2006). The epistemology of wargames. Naval War College Review, 59(2), 108–128.
Schechter, E., Sokolsky, R., & Johnson, D. (2021). Wargaming and its limits. RAND Corporation.